Xiao Ruidong, a journalist and editor, Wang Haixing.
Before the May Day holidayChancesofwinningpowerballA round of resonance between A shares and Hong Kong stocks cheered many investors. During the May Day holiday this year, the overall performance of the major indexes in the global market was strong, and the performance of Chinese assets was particularly outstanding. The Nasdaq Golden Dragon Index, the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index and the Hang Seng Index ranked among the top three in the global market index. In this context, the major securities firms are more optimistic about the outlook of the post-holiday A-share market as a whole.
It is worth noting that recently, with the rebound in risk appetite, it seems that "overnight", the balance of the A-share market began to tilt from high dividends and resource stocks to growth stocks and core assets. Judging from the May gold stock portfolio released by major brokerages, the proportion of white horse stocks and growth stocks has increased, while the popularity of "medium prefix" and high dividends has declined significantly.
Major market indices are mixed.
During the May Day holiday this year, the major market indexes were mixed, but the overall strength was strong, with the performance of Chinese assets leading the world.
According to Choice data, the Nasdaq Golden Dragon Index, the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index and the Hang Seng Index all rose more than 4% from April 30 to May 3, significantly outperforming the major indices in Europe, the United States and Japan in the same period, ranking among the top three in the global market index.
Among them, Hong Kong stocks continued to rise last Thursday (May 2) and Friday (May 3) when A shares were closed, and the Hang Seng Index rose 2% on Thursday.Chancesofwinningpowerball.50%, up 1.48% on Friday, has risen for nine consecutive trading days. Over the same period, the Hang Seng Technology Index also performed strongly, up 4.45% on Thursday and 2.74% on Friday. From the perspective of the specific industries of Hong Kong stocks, last week, industries such as information technology, health care, optional consumption, real estate construction and finance took the lead, while the telecommunications and energy industries fell slightly to the bottom.
By contrast, the overall performance of global commodity markets during the May Day holiday was weak. Between April 30 and May 3, the Reuters CRB commodity index fell nearly 3%, the lowest in the global market index. International oil prices, gold prices, copper prices and other major commodity prices have all fallen to varying degrees, of which international oil prices have dropped more significantly, and Brent crude oil has fallen by more than 5%.
In the foreign exchange market, from May 1 to 3, as the dollar index continued to fall, non-US currencies strengthened across the board, with the yen rising nearly 3% against the dollar and the offshore RMB rising 0.84% against the dollar.
A number of securities firms are optimistic about growth stocks.
Recently, as the Hong Kong stock market continues to strengthen, superimposed northbound funds have re-increased investment in A-shares, market sentiment has picked up and risk appetite has also rebounded. From January to April this year, the dividend and resource sectors of the A-share market continued to take the lead (the dividend index rose 12.8% from January to April, leading the core index of A-shares). But looking forward to the future, a number of brokerage strategy teams are betting on growth stocks.
Guotai Junan Strategy team pointed out in the A-share Strategy Weekly released a few days ago that after the wind and rain, always meet the rainbow. The stock market has priced medium-and long-term and short-term risks, and looking back, uncertainty is expected to be reduced. Looking forward to the middle of the year, the stock market is expected to fluctuate upward, focusing on growth stocks.
The strategy team of China Merchants Securities recently released a research report pointing out that in May, with the end of the performance disclosure period, the risk appetite is repaired, and the market may start looking for a more flexible direction, the theme track investment based on industrial trends is expected to be active again, and the previously suppressed growth style may regain dominance.
The Caitong Securities Strategy team recently released a view that growth is dominant in May. May is expected to be the "most fundamental" month for A-shares, followed by a typical structural market dominated by performance growth, focusing on TMT, which focuses on policy and industrial catalytic demand: electronics, AI, hydrogen energy, new energy vehicles, machinery (robots, equipment updates), and so on.
In addition, for the recent resumption of northward capital inflows, Everbright Securities (rights protection) strategy team analysis pointed out that in the short-term dimension, China's policy catalytic superposition of US economic data is not as expected to promote foreign capital inflows into A shares. In the long-term dimension, the current allocation price of A-share assets is relatively high, and a number of mainstream international investment institutions have raised the expectation of A-share.
However, at a time when the market style may "turn", some brokerages still adhere to their own views. Minsheng Securities Strategy team recently pointed out that there is still room for resource stocks in the future. Minsheng Securities strategy team had previously insisted on bullish on resource stocks.
According to the latest view released by Guangfa Securities's strategy team, looking ahead, we should still pay attention to A-share stable-value assets in the medium and long term before the real estate cycle rebounds or the outbreak of technology applications. Stable value assets correspond to neutral dividends, screening varieties with high dividend, low valuation and relatively stable ROE (return on net assets). Since 2022, the dividend yield has become very effective, and stable value assets are dominant.
It is worth noting that the relevant policy signals from the recent high-level meeting have also attracted more attention from the market. With regard to the trend of monetary policy that the market is concerned about, the meeting of the political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee stressed the need to flexibly use policy tools such as interest rates and deposit reserve ratio to increase support to the real economy and reduce social comprehensive financing costs.
In this regard, Shen Wanhongyuan Research recently released a research report and analysis pointed out that on the whole, the pattern of keeping monetary policy moderately loose and promoting the decline of social financing costs has not changed, and has not changed the orientation of monetary policy to further stabilize domestic demand because of "capital idleness" and other reasons, and market-related concerns may be further alleviated. Maintain the judgment that the next monetary policy window may remain unchanged in the third quarter.
The performance of "gold stocks" in April was mediocre.
So far, most of the May gold stock portfolios of brokerages have been released. In the gold stock portfolio in April, the "medium prefix", high dividend and resources sectors are favored by various brokerages. For example, in April, four gold stocks were recommended by six brokerages at the same time, namely Zijin Mining, China Railway, CNOOC and Midea, and five gold stocks were recommended by four brokerages at the same time. They are China Mobile, PetroChina, Changan Automobile, Shandong Gold, Jinshan Office. Judging from the solid performance in April, many of these "gold stocks" have gone up and down, and the overall performance in April is lacklustre.
最近市场关注的天平开始从高股息、资源股板块，向成长股、白马股倾斜。在这样的背景下，据《每日经济新闻》记者观察，5月各券商的金股组合中，白马股和成长股的占比有所提升，而“中字头”和高股息的热度则明显下降。
例如，国联证券5月金股组合较4月有较大幅度的调仓，总共调整了9只个股，多只“中字头”、高股息、资源概念股被调出，取而代之的是成长股和白马股。
银河证券4月金股组合中包括了几只“中字头”概念，而在5月的组合中，“中字头”已不见踪迹，取而代之的是一系列成长股。
但也有一些券商，虽然在5月金股组合中同样出现了一定比例的调仓，但整体风格变化不大。例如，申万宏源的5月金股组合仍然是相对均衡的配置，即组合中同时包括了“中字头”、成长股、白马股等不同风格个股。民生证券的5月金股组合中，仍然保持了对资源股的推荐比例。
据Choice数据统计，在5月金股组合中，推荐券商数量不少于3家的金股包括金山办公、比亚迪、宁德时代、青岛啤酒、立讯精密、北方华创、中际旭创等。而推荐券商数量不少于两家的金股中，已少有“中字头”的身影。
虽然今年以来市场风格不时发生变化，但整体来看，各板块、各行业的龙头股更受券商金股组合的偏爱。比如最近两个月，券商集中推荐的金股大多都是一些行业龙头股。
兴业证券策略团队日前发布研报指出，今年以来，市场出现了包括红利、出海、资源股等几个比较鲜明的主线。而这些线索的背后，埋藏的是龙头股跑赢的暗线。在多数方向、指数、行业中，龙头股均有显著的超额收益。统计申万31个一级行业年初以来的涨跌幅中位数可以发现，各行业中市值前五的龙头股，无一例外均较行业整体表现出明显的超额收益。与此同时，指数层面，年初以来上证50、沪深300也整体跑赢市场。
而龙头股明显走强背后的资金面因素是，ETF和险资成为今年重要的边际增量资金，也带动市场进一步聚焦龙头白马股、核心资产。年初以来，股票型ETF份额净增长1268亿份，带来超过3300亿元的资金净流入。其中，沪深300指数ETF是最重要的增量来源。与此同时，截至2024年3月，保险公司累计保费收入维持两位数增长，也带动险资继续流入。