Marko Kolanovic, chief market strategist at JPMorgan Chase, said the US stock market could repeat the downturn that began in late August, with the long-term outlook for high interest rates putting pressure on economic growth and posing a risk to the stock market rally this year.
"We are still worried about a repeat of last summer's downturn, as the trade-off between growth and policy may deviate from the Goldilocks narrative, overlaying the continuing risk of a reversal in market concentration, excessive forecasts for accelerated earnings growth this year and unwinding positions," Kolanovic and others said in a report to clients on Monday.
Note: after five consecutive months of gains from November last year to March this year, the S & P 500 may end its five-month rally this month.
Kolanovic says the rise of large technology companies is masked.CreditcardrouletteBecause of investors' concerns about interest rates, interest rates seem to remain higher for a longer period of time.
CreditcardrouletteHe said that the unexpected decline in US GDP growth last week and the unexpected rise in inflation data put pressure on the "soft landing" narrative, indicating that the US economy is moving towards stagflation compared with market expectations.
Kolanovic expects Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's comments after the Fed's policy meeting this week to suggest that officials need to have more confidence in the inflation target of 2%.
Note: Kolanovic's forecast for the US stock market has not been realized for two years in a row.