Commodities used to keep a low profile, but recently they have become a bit popular.
The main reason is that the market is too conspicuous.
On May 20th, spot gold continued to rise after breaking the $2440 / oz mark, setting an all-time high. COMEX gold futures hit an intraday high of $2454 an ounce.
Spot silver also stood above the $32 / oz mark, an 11-year high. The price of LME copper futures exceeded US $11000 per ton for the first time, and the main international copper futures contract hit the daily limit, rising as much as 7%, a record high.
More and more investors are beginning to find the so-called large categories of asset allocation.Pennfierce36000The importance can not just focus on the fixed collection of rights and interests, some tool products have to be put in the basket.
After all, all in can betray you with anything but a balanced configuration.
The "upsurge" of commodities is a leading factor in the expectation of interest rate cuts in the United States.
Precious metals are essentially a hedge against the dollar credit system. In the long run, there is a negative correlation between gold price and real interest rate and dollar index. Historically, when the Fed starts the interest rate cut cycle, it is expected to constitute a certain positive for gold prices, and from the trend point of view, gold prices may have a "rush" due to early trading interest rate cuts.
CPI in the United States rose 3% in April compared with the same month last year.Pennfierce36000.4%, in line with market expectations; month-on-month growth of 0%Pennfierce36000.3%, lower than the 0.4% expected by the market. Core CPI fell to 3.6 per cent in April from a year earlier, the lowest since April 2021, while core CPI month-on-month growth slowed to 0.3 per cent from 0.4 per cent in March, the first decline in six months.
In the United States, non-farmers and CPI were lower than expected in April, mainly due to the long duration of the previous high interest rate environment. The inflation and employment data concerned by the Fed's monetary policy have cooled at the same time, the possibility of future interest rate cuts has increased, and there is still a high probability of starting this round of interest rate cuts in the second half of the year.
Recently, the European Central Bank and the Bank of England have been repeatedly "blowing the wind" that interest rates will be cut in June. Bostjan Vasle, a member of the ECB's governing board and president of the Central Bank of Slovenia, said on Friday that June might be the right time to start cutting interest rates, but would continue to wait for the data and said he was open to the next path.
The expected rise in interest rate cuts is good for non-ferrous metals, especially gold.
Another important factor is risk aversion. 2024 is known as the "largest election year in history", and at least 70 countries and regions will hold elections this year.
Precious metals prices were also affected by renewed geopolitical risks in the Middle East over the weekend and heightened risk aversion in the market. Xinhua News Agency, according to Iran's Mehr News Agency reported on the 20th, Iranian President Leahy was killed in a helicopter accident. Risk aversion in the market has risen sharply.
The performance of copper, aluminum and other non-ferrous metals is also affected by some of itsPennfierce36000The influence of his policy. For example, the continuous optimization of real estate policies, and organizations such as the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology to carry out activities to the countryside for new energy vehicles in 2024 will also boost market sentiment, and demand will continue to improve. In the case of relatively limited supply, the price of copper, aluminum and other non-ferrous metals is more flexible.
Investors interested in commodities and precious metals can still follow gold stocks ETF (517400) and gold fund ETF (518800) for a long time.
Gold stock ETF (517400) mainly invests in covering the whole industry chain of gold mining, smelting, processing and jewelry manufacturing. From a historical point of view, the trend of gold stocks is similar to that of gold. From a fundamental point of view, the upstream has its own mineral rich and downstream gold demand is strong, the profit level of gold enterprises is expected to improve.
On the other hand, the gold fund ETF (518800) invests in the spot gold of AU9999, which is listed and traded on the Gold Exchange, and the fluctuation of the investment spot is smaller than that of futures. The investment experience is close to direct investment in physical gold.
We have observed that during the rise in gold prices in recent years, gold stocks may be more resilient than commodity gold.
In addition to gold-related products, we also have some products that we can invest in non-ferrous metals and commodities.
Examples include mining ETF (561330) and non-ferrous 60ETF (159881). In recent years, the lack of capital expenditure leads to limited supply is the core logic to support these upstream resource goods.
And Cathay Pacific Commodities (160216), which is a FOF, according to the quarterly report of the fund, mainly invests in a series of commodity ETF products of overseas fund managers, covering gold, silver, oil, copper and other mainstream varieties, if added to the portfolio may effectively hedge equity market risk.
However, the Shanghai Gold Exchange issued a notice yesterday, cautiously reminding the risks and advising investors to avoid blindly chasing high, reasonably control their positions and invest rationally. Today's commodity market has also been adjusted.
Generally speaking, the volatility of this variety is indeed relatively large, suitable for configuration, not suitable for full positions, it is recommended to pay attention to the position when buying, which can be used as a hedge of conventional varieties and can also be used to fight inflation.
In the medium term, the Fed is still expected to start cutting interest rates by the end of the year, and there is still a positive trend logic for gold prices caused by the alternating downward trend of general easing and economic rolling.
Therefore, after the high pullback, we can still consider the layout of bargain hunting.
Note: The main investment object of the gold fund ETF is gold spot contracts, and the expected risk-return level is similar to that of gold assets, but is different from equity funds, hybrid funds, bond funds and money market funds. Before investing in the Fund, investors should fully understand the product characteristics of the Fund, fully consider their own risk tolerance, rationally judge the market, and make independent decisions on investment behaviors such as willingness, timing, and quantity to subscribe, subscribe or buy funds in the secondary market. Make independent decisions, obtain fund investment income, and also bear various risks arising from fund investment, including: Systemic risks caused by the impact of overall political, economic, social and other environmental factors on gold prices, liquidity risks, fund management risks generated by fund managers during the implementation of fund management, specific risks of the fund, etc. The gold stock ETF, mining ETF, and nonferrous 60ETF are equity funds, and their expected returns and expected risk levels are theoretically higher than hybrid funds, bond funds and money market funds. The gold stock ETF, mining ETF, and nonferrous 60ETF are index funds, and their risk-return characteristics are similar to those of the market portfolio represented by the underlying index. Cathay Pacific Commodities are funds within funds, and fund managers strive to control the annualized volatility of funds within a specific level (annualized 15%). Therefore, this Fund belongs to a fund with higher expected risks and expected returns among securities investment funds.
Opinions are for reference only and do not constitute investment advice or commitment. The market is risky and investment needs to be cautious.