Crude oilTombtimecrashbandicoot3:
TuesdayTombtimecrashbandicoot3SC2406, the main contract for crude oil, closed up 1% at night.Tombtimecrashbandicoot3.54%, at 646Tombtimecrashbandicoot3.8 yuan per barrel; WTI June contract closed 1.78 per cent higher at 83.36 US dollars per barrel; Brent June contract closed 1.63 per cent higher at 88.42 US dollars per barrel. Us crude oil inventories fell by 3.237 million barrels in the week ended April 19, according to API. Gasoline stocks decreased by 595000 barrels, while distillate stocks increased by 724000 barrels. Production at the Awoba field of the Nigerian National Oil Company has resumed and production is expected to recover from 8000 b / d to 12000 b / d. The geopolitical premium of phased oil prices is still an important influencing factor. Judging from the performance of refined oil products, the domestic May Day short holiday is approaching, and the stock of oil products before the festival will enter the middle of collection, but it is also necessary to guard against the situation of demand overdraft in advance. Oil prices are expected to enter a high shock consolidation situation.
Fuel oil:
On Tuesday, FU2409, the main contract for fuel oil in the previous period, closed down 0.09% at 3474 yuan / ton, while LU2407, the main contract for low-sulfur fuel oil, closed down 0.31% at 4487 yuan / ton. Customs data show that China's imports of bonded marine fuel oil in March were 383300 tons, up 72.11% from the previous month and 118.28% from a year earlier, while China's bonded marine oil exports were 1.4122 million tons, an increase of 166600 tons or 13.38% from the previous month. Recent oil price fluctuations, it is expected that the short-term FU and LU absolute prices will follow the oil price fluctuations, high and low sulfur price difference to maintain a low level.
Asphalt:
On Tuesday, BU2406, the main contract for asphalt, closed down 0.51% at 3725 yuan / ton. Although the United States announced the resumption of sanctions against Venezuela, it will not affect the existing special mandate, and international oil prices remain high, so refinery profits do not recover for the time being. Under the profit loss on the supply side, it is difficult to cash in the output of some refineries in April, and the future output may still be at a low level in the same period. The georefining schedule in May increased slightly but was still low compared with the same period last year. On the demand side, it is expected that the demand in the south and north will continue to differentiate and increase slowly as a whole. Under the background that the increase in supply is less than the demand, the fundamental support of asphalt is strong, but due to the recent fluctuations in oil prices, it is expected that the absolute price of BU in the short term will follow the fluctuations in oil prices.
Rubber:
On Tuesday, by the close of trading on Tuesday, RU2409, the main force of Shanghai glue, fell 135yuan / ton to 14280 yuan / ton, NR fell 130yuan / ton to 11635 yuan / ton, and butadiene rubber BR fell 95 yuan / ton to 12835 yuan / ton. Yesterday, Shanghai whole latex 13550 (- 100), whole milk-RU2409 spread-820 (+ 85), RMB mixed 13200 (- 50), mixed-RU2409 spread-1170 (+ 135), BR9000 Qilu spot 13400 (+ 0), BR9000-BR main force 530 (+ 245). In the week ended April 19, the inventory of natural rubber in the Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 117300 tons, a decrease of 4900 tons, or 4.01%, compared with the previous period. The general trade warehouse inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao area was 387800 tons, a decrease of 14300 tons or 3.56% compared with the previous period. Opening continues in Hainan, raw material prices are strong, but short-term output is low. As the supply pressure of Tianjiao is small, import pressure slows down, and downstream demand is rigid, Tianjiao inventory is expected to be further loosened. Pay attention to the expectation of collection and storage after dumping.
Polyester:
TA409 closed yesterday at 5960 yuan / ton, down 0.17%; spot offer discount 09 contract-37 yuan / ton. EG2409 closed yesterday at 4506 yuan / ton, down 1.05%, the basis decreased by 4 yuan / ton to-110yuan / ton, spot quotation 4430 yuan / ton. The main contract of PX futures closed at 8580 yuan / ton, down 0.58 per cent. The spot negotiation price is US $1048 / ton, the RMB price is 8753 yuan / ton, and the basis spread is 39 yuan / ton to 143yuan / ton. South China 2.5 million tons of PTA plant restart, East China 2.5 million tons of PTA plant restart, today's PTA capacity operation rate climbed 3.07 percent. The downstream polyester load starts firmly, but the PX end equipment changes greatly, the maintenance time is mostly 10-15 days, and the original maintenance plan is advanced, the maintenance time is limited. TA in the new plant put into production, Fuhai Chuang and other devices load rise, downstream construction is strong, falling space is limited, the price is more affected by the cost. The overhaul of the ethylene glycol plant is still continuing, but when the port inventory is weakened and the downstream support is available, the price fluctuation is small.
Methanol:
On Tuesday, the spot price of Taicang fell 75 yuan / ton to 2635 yuan / ton, the price of Inner Mongolia North Line fell 20 yuan / ton, the price of CFR China was at 2240 yuan / ton, the price of CFR Southeast Asia was at 345-350 yuan / ton, and the closing price of the main futures contract was 2506 yuan / ton, down 68 yuan / ton from yesterday's settlement price. In terms of plant, Inner Mongolia China Coal Yuanxing 600000 t / a methanol plant is being restarted. Downstream, the price of formaldehyde in Shandong is 1215 yuan / ton, the price of acetic acid in Jiangsu is 3130-3250 yuan / ton, and the price of MTBE in Shandong is 7400 yuan / ton. In terms of profit, the gross profit of coal-to-methanol in Inner Mongolia is 61.4 yuan / ton. Generally speaking, the domestic maintenance efforts are not strong, the start-up and production positions are high, the plant operating rate in Iran is stable, the supply is expected to increase, and the arrival price is expected to move downwards. The recent rise in methanol prices has led to negative feedback from MTO. China-Angola United and Shenhua Baotou were overhauled on April 12 and April 15 respectively, the demand for formaldehyde and acetic acid was relatively stable, MTBE construction declined, and the overall demand was weak, along with the increase in incoming cargo volume. The port has a trend of accumulation, in the short term, it is more difficult to continue to break upward, maintain the concussion trend, and pay attention to the outcome of the Iranian negotiations and the follow-up port volume.
Polypropylene:
On Tuesday, the mainstream of wire drawing in East China was 7550-7730 yuan / ton. On the supply side, Fujian United first line (330000 tons / year) PP device parking maintenance. In terms of profit, the gross profit of oil-based PP is-1303.76 yuan / ton; the gross profit of coal-based PP production is-17.27 yuan / ton; the gross profit of methanol-based PP production is-1486.33 yuan / ton; the gross profit of propane dehydrogenation-PP production is-513.9 yuan / ton; and the gross profit of propylene-based PP production is-107.22 yuan / ton. From a fundamental point of view, the overall supply and demand is in a state of loose balance. The current output is higher than that of the same period last year and is at the high level of nearly five years. The weekly output is difficult to fall below 600000 tons because of the better profit from coal production. The operating rate of plastic weaving on the demand side has risen steadily. Although the operating rate of injection molding is lower than that of the same period last year, due to the influence of the policy of replacing old appliances with new ones, it is expected that the starting rate of injection molding still has room to rise. In terms of inventory, the inventory pressure in the upper and lower reaches of the industrial chain is not great. Recently, crude oil is the main factor affecting the price fluctuation of PP. The main contract changes with the price of SC, but due to the dispersion of production process and the relatively loose supply, the trend is weaker than that of LLDPE. With the downward adjustment of crude oil price, it is expected that the main contract will fall, the basis will be stronger, and the LL-PP price spread will be weaker.
Polyethylene:
On Tuesday, the mainstream price of East China HDPE spot market was 8650 yuan / ton, unchanged from the previous working day; the mainstream price of East China LDPE market was 9550 yuan / ton, stable compared with the previous working day; the mainstream price of North China LLDPE market was 8420 yuan / ton, unchanged from the previous working day; polyethylene futures closed at 8356 yuan / ton, down 106 yuan / ton from the previous working day. On the supply side, Dushanzi Sinopec's old full-density 2-line device is overhauled. In terms of profit, the gross profit of oil polyethylene market is-815 yuan / ton, and that of coal polyethylene market is 1606 yuan / ton. From a fundamental point of view, production and downstream construction are down from the same period last year, showing a weak pattern of supply and demand as a whole, follow-up maintenance volume will begin to decline, and production is expected to stabilize at 500000 tons / week, import profits may pick up, while the demand side due to the seasonal influence of agricultural film will continue to weaken, supply pressure will gradually appear, at the same time, excessive social inventory will form further suppression to the polyethylene market. The main reason for the recent strong LLDPE price comes from the valuation end, the continuous strengthening of the early crude oil forms the bottom support for the price, while with the rise and fall of the crude oil price, the cost support logic will be difficult to continue. It is expected that the short-term main contract will follow the crude oil decline and the basis will strengthen.
Polyvinyl chloride:
On Tuesday, the price of PVC in East China fell steadily, with calcium carbide type 5 material 5550-5630 yuan / ton, ethylene mainstream reference about 5780-5850 yuan / ton; North China PVC market price changed little, calcium carbide type 5 mainstream reference about 5520-5600 yuan / ton, ethylene mainstream reference 5900-6080 yuan / ton The price of South China PVC market is stable and loose, the mainstream reference of calcium carbide type 5 material is about 5630-5700 yuan / ton, and the mainstream quotation of ethylene material is 5730-5870 yuan / ton. The futures contract closed at 5886 yuan per ton, down 26 yuan per ton. In terms of raw materials, the mainstream trade price of calcium carbide in Northwest China is 2550 tons. Overall, the overhaul season has passed halfway, the pressure on supply will gradually appear, while the recovery of demand is not as expected, and the fundamentals show a pattern of strong supply and weak demand, but the current spot price is low and the space to continue to fall is limited, the futures market may first trade the expectation of supply-side maintenance and demand recovery, but futures prices are too high to bring space to cash arbitrage, so there is not much room to rise, and it is expected that the main contract of PVC will fluctuate and run weakly.
Urea:
On Tuesday, the trend of urea prices was still weak, with prices in the mainstream areas reduced by 100.40 yuan per ton. Recently, the maintenance and failure of urea enterprises have increased, and daily production has dropped to less than 180000 tons. Yesterday, the daily output is 176700 tons. In the next week or so, the enterprise has a plan to resume production, and the daily output of urea may increase. The demand side has followed up, and there are also expectations of replenishment in the lower reaches before the May Day holiday, but at present, some of the middle and lower reaches are still resistant to high prices, and the follow-up is mainly small orders, and the possibility of further price reduction by manufacturers in order to attract orders can not be ruled out in the later stage. The domestic urea market is still dominated by guaranteed supply and stable price, short-term export demand has not followed up substantially, and the domestic market sentiment is also relatively weak. It is expected that short-term urea futures prices are still dominated by weak volatility, but not too bearish. Pay attention to the follow-up of domestic fertilizer policy and demand.
Soda ash & glass:
On Tuesday, the spot market performance of soda ash was still strong, with soda prices rising to varying degrees in North China, Northeast China and Southwest China. The quotations of traders are divided, the price in the northwest is down, and the price in central China is still moving up. From a fundamental point of view, individual enterprises have resumed production in the past two days, and the production level of the industry has improved steadily, with the operating rate rising slightly to 87.17% yesterday. The demand side is mainly followed up by small orders, and the downstream enterprises with low raw material inventory replenish the stock appropriately, but the downstream sentiment tends to wait and see after the price rises. On the whole, the performance of the soda spot market is still relatively strong, and the futures market is expected to remain strong and volatile. Considering the gradual digestion of multi-factors in the early market, it is not recommended to intervene too much before the emergence of new drivers. Pay attention to the risk of supply change and demand increment, news disturbance and market sentiment change.
Glass spot market trend is still weak, yesterday the domestic average price continued to fall 10 yuan / ton to 1713 yuan / ton. At present, the glass market still maintains a weak pattern of strong supply and demand, with general pick-up sentiment in the middle and lower reaches, and price cuts in some areas have obviously boosted the transaction. Yesterday, the production and sales rate of Shahe area was 135%, while the rest of the area maintained a fluctuation of 8-9%. On the whole, the mentality of the glass spot industry chain is mostly pessimistic, and there is a certain support for local replenishment before the May Day holiday, but the market demand has not yet become stronger in an all-round way, and the trend is still treated as a wide range of shocks in the trend. pay attention to the spot production and marketing of glass, changes in macro sentiment and policy support, and the price trend of raw material soda ash.