Futures daily
Yesterday, new news came from the international crude oil market.
According to sources, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Nowak said that after the formation of the new Russian government, it will consider lifting the ban on gasoline exports.
Earlier, Matviyenko, chairman of the Russian Federation Council (upper house of parliament), said that the nomination and review of ministers of the new Russian government will be carried out before May 15.
In addition, it was reported last Friday that due to wildfires continuing to burn, Alberta, CanadaPokersetThe town of Fort McMurray has issued evacuation notices to residents. The notice said that the wildfire in the Fort McMurray forest area is out of control, covering an area of 1000 hectares (10 square kilometers), which is extremely dangerous.
According to reports, Fort McMurray is an important oil city in Canada. There was also a forest fire in 2016, which led to the evacuation of 90,000 residents and disrupted oil production.
It is reported that Canada is a traditional oil and gas country with rich oil and gas reserves, but both oil and gas are mainly unconventional resources, so it is difficult to exploit them. In terms of oil, as of March 2022, Canada has known proven oil reserves of 170 billion barrels, ranking third in the world, accounting for about 9% of the world's total reserves.Pokerset.8%. Canada is the world's fourth largest oil producer, accounting for about 6% of global oil production in 2021. Canada's oil production is highly concentrated, with most crude oil coming from Alberta (82%) in 2021.
Hengli futures crude oil researcher he Han said that the recent bearish sentiment in the crude oil market has increased rapidly.
The latest Commodity Futures Trading Commission's latest position report showed that the speculative net long position in WTI crude oil futures fell 56517 positions to 82697 positions in the week ended May 7. The long and net long positions of WTI crude oil management fund decreased by 37172 and 55038 hands respectively, while the long and net long positions of Brent crude oil management fund decreased by 53341 and 60125 hands respectively. As geopolitical risks are squeezed out and the fundamentals of crude oil supply and demand are loose, institutions believe that oil prices have limited upside, so they quickly reduce long positions, increase short positions, and net long positions fall rapidly. In terms of refined oil products, long and net long positions in US gasoline decreased by 19924 and 18909 hands respectively. Cumulative increase in EIA gasoline inventoryPokersetAs a result of market concerns about the outlook for gasoline prices, institutions have reduced their long positions in gasoline and short positions have also decreased slightly. In addition, European diesel long and net long positions decreased by 7819 and 16662 hands respectively. European institutions are more bearish on diesel, with short positions rising sharply when long positions are reduced. " He Han said.
Yang Jiaming, an analyst at Citic Futures, said oil prices rebounded last week after Saudi Arabia raised the discount on official oil prices in June and deepened production cuts. In addition, factors such as the better expected US economic growth in the second quarter and the difficulties in the Palestinian-Israeli peace talks are also positive for crude oil.
Looking at the fundamentals of crude oil, Yang Jiaming said that the latest EIA data show that the demand for gasoline and diesel in the United States has fallen to the lowest level since the COVID-19 epidemic, and the demand for distillates is also seasonally low. Poor demand for crude oil has become a reality. At the macro level, the number of initial claims for unemployment benefits in the United States last week reached 23.Pokerset.10,000, the highest since August 2023, interest rate cuts are expected to reignite, and economic growth is slowing obviously. The Atlanta Fed pushed up its forecast for US GDP growth in the second quarter of 2024 to a staggering 4.2 per cent, up from a previous estimate of 3.3 per cent. The reality of weakness has become the dominant factor in the crude oil market, while better macro expectations dominate the market for commodities such as copper, and the copper-oil ratio continues to expand. EIA5 monthly report cut oil prices by nearly $2 per barrel, adding to the decline in geo-risk premium during the Paris Olympics. Oil prices can continue to rise only if Saudi and Russian crude oil production continues to fall or the geopolitical situation escalates further.
He Han said that recently, the world's three major energy agencies EIA, OPEC and IEA are optimistic about the prospects of the crude oil market. In late May, the overhaul period for refinery installations in the northern hemisphere ends, the peak season for gasoline consumption is gradually approaching, the demand for crude oil is expected to pick up steadily, and the upward driving force of oil prices will increase. In addition, the crude oil accumulation cycle is coming to an end, which helps to strengthen the tight supply and demand pattern of the oil market. After digesting the negative impact of the Fed's delayed rate cut, the impact of the macro view weakened and the dominant logic of the crude oil market returned to fundamentals. OPEC+ production control superimposed crude oil consumption will usher in the seasonal peak season, and the supply and demand structure of the oil market in the second quarter is expected to be further improved.