Source China Fund Daily
Reporter Li Shuchao Zhang Ling
Affected by the shock of the bond market at the end of April this yearPlayrouletteonlineRecently, the income of many bank wealth management products with updated net worth has dropped significantly. The latest data show that the net value of wealth management products of nearly half of the fixed collection banks fell at the end of April, with the largest decline of 140BP, the largest retracement of the year.
The return of wealth management products is obvious.
"large-scale and large-scale redemptions have not been seen yet."
In April this year, the bond market staged a roller coaster, with yields going down first and then rising. Specifically, it was still a bond bull market before April 23, but after the central bank said that "long-term treasury bond yields will generally run within a reasonable range", the yields of major varieties rose significantly, with 30-year treasury bonds rising more than 10 BP in a week.
Affected by the adjustment of the bond market, the withdrawal of bank wealth management products in late April is also more obvious. According to the latest data disclosed by the Liao Zhiming team of China Merchants Securities, the average annualized returns of pure fixed income, fixed fixed income plus and holding fixed income in the second half of April are 3. 5% respectively.Playrouletteonline.0%, 2Playrouletteonline.6% and 2.0%, which is significantly lower than that in the first half of the month.
Data from Ruizhi Xinhong Financial Management Research Institute also show that by the end of April, according to the registration code, 1710 fixed-income bank wealth management products in the whole market have fallen, accounting for 47%, nearly half of the whole market. The product with the biggest decline reached 140BP, the biggest pullback of the year.
In response, Lou Feipeng, a researcher at the Postal savings Bank of China, said that government bond issuance in April was less than in previous years, with overall bond yields falling, maturity spreads and credit spreads narrowing in the face of relatively abundant liquidity. At the same time, the central bank's attention to the bond market and the acceleration of government bond issuance since May have promoted the adjustment and volatility of bond yields, especially for medium-and long-term bonds.
A person from a head wealth management company also believes that there has been a correction in the bond market recently. from the point of view of the range of adjustment, interest rate bonds have risen faster, especially under greater pressure on the long end. At the end of April, the yield on 10-year treasury bonds rose about 15BP within four working days. At the same time, the agency observed from the current round of bond market adjustment that, first of all, the decline of financial products with short-end assets as the main position is relatively controllable, from the understanding of the industry, the phenomenon of large-scale redemption has not yet been seen. Secondly, market institutions generally have a large amount of funds on hand, with strong motivation to increase positions and fast emotional repair, which are intended to seize the allocation opportunity after the interest rate goes up.
"the category with the most drastic adjustment this time is concentrated in long-end assets. Financial products mainly hold medium-and short-end bond assets, and the proportion of long-end assets is relatively small. Although short-end assets have also fluctuated recently, there has not been a significant tightening of capital in the near future. and under the support of short-term characteristics and stable valuation assets, it is expected that the overall fluctuation range of net product value can be controlled." The head financial management company further said that after several rounds of bond market adjustment in the early stage, the market learning effect is obvious, financial management is generally more abundant liquidity reserves, the experience and ability to cope with bond market adjustment is more sufficient, and institutional behavior will be more rational. The probability of negative feedback is small. On the whole, pure debt financial management still has allocation value after short-term fluctuations.
Ruizhi Xinhong Financial Management Research Institute also believes that the long-term trend of China's economy for the better remains unchanged, and expectations for further improvement in the short and medium term. Triggered by the central bank's position, there has been a certain adjustment in the bond market. "for some time, the bond market may be more obviously affected by policy factors, but it is believed that the bond market will move forward more steadily."
Investors should establish reasonable return expectations
After the sharp turmoil in the bond market, looking forward to the future, respondents generally believe that bond yields may tend to be volatile. In this context, on the one hand, financial companies can appropriately adjust their strategies to improve product returns, on the other hand, they also need to help investors establish reasonable return expectations.
Xingyin Financial and Investment Research Department said that with the increase of central bank support for the bond market and capital, bond market sentiment is expected to pick up. Yields may return to range volatility, wide monetary expectations and government debt supply expectations are intertwined, yield volatility has increased, but the upward and downward space is relatively limited, temporarily responding to shocks.
Ruizhi Xinhong Financial Research Institute also believes that since 2023, bank wealth management products have shown a higher level of return, benefiting from the continued improvement of the bond market, especially urban investment bonds have been affected by favorable factors, resulting in better capital gains. However, with the aggravation of the "asset shortage", bond yields show two-way fluctuations, and the total amount of high-yield assets such as urban investment bonds is also decreasing, and bank financial returns are expected to decline to a certain extent. "PlayrouletteonlineWe believe that wealth management companies should convey the above information to investors through various channels so that they can have reasonable expectations of the financial returns of banks. "
The team of China Merchants Securities Liao Zhiming also said that due to the obvious decline in bond yields in recent years, especially the sharp decline in bond yields in the past six months, superimposed by the manual replacement of prohibited deposits, the annualized financial yield may fall to just over 2% in the second half of the year.
Looking forward to the medium to long term, bond yields tend to fall. However, after a significant decline in bond yields, we need to lower the expectation of investment return on financial management. " The team spoke bluntly.
Lou Feipeng said that in a low interest rate environment, bond yields are also under pressure to maintain a high level, and the funds of bank wealth management products are mainly invested in bonds, especially in fixed-income bank wealth management products. Investors need to appropriately adjust their income expectations for bank wealth management products.